sure-thing survey

← lab · · ran 7/17/2026

What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.

cells

n	band	wins	market	roi pct	avg price	selection
1,218	70-80%	901	Match result	-0.81	1.343	away side win
2,982	70-80%	2,230	Match result	0.42	1.344	home side win
479	80-90%	402	Match result	0.92	1.202	away side win
2,081	80-90%	1,739	Match result	-0.93	1.187	home side win
19	p>=90%	16	Match result	-8.41	1.088	away side win
447	p>=90%	405	Match result	-1.65	1.086	home side win
1,557	70-80%	1,107	Over/Under 2.5 goals	-3.7	1.357	Over
398	70-80%	266	Over/Under 2.5 goals	-7.6	1.384	Under
222	80-90%	186	Over/Under 2.5 goals	0.71	1.203	Over
2	80-90%	1	Over/Under 2.5 goals	-37.5	1.25	Under
3	p>=90%	3	Over/Under 2.5 goals	10.5	1.105	Over

AUC	predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports
Importance	how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance)
Direction	sign of the raw correlation with the outcome
Survives all eras	effect points the same way in every historical era

Spec · the reproducible recipe

{
  "markets": [
    "1x2",
    "ou_goals_2_5",
    "btts"
  ],
  "threshold": ">=70% implied"
}