gap-filter fit for live executor
← lab · n train 13,698 · base rate model right 0.4915 · ran 7/12/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| n train | 13,698 |
| artifact | /app/data/downloads/gap_filter.joblib |
| base rate model right | 0.4915 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "gap_filter_fit",
"seed": 42,
"model_run": 18
}