edge parlay: does a real edge compound up across legs?
← lab · price agg max · single roi 4.63 · ran 7/9/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| note | same-day legs may be mildly correlated; trebles thin. If the single is +EV and legs ~independent, ROI should rise with legs (edge^n). |
| leg def | away, SA/FL1/PPL, price<= 2.6, 2015+ |
| price agg | max |
| single roi | 4.63 |
| compounds up | yes |
grid
| bets | legs | hit pct | roi pct | biggest payout |
|---|
| 3,200 | 1 | 57.19 | 4.63 | 26 |
| 3,936 | 2 | 30.87 | 4.99 | 66.82 |
| 3,621 | 3 | 15.08 | -3.81 | 159.7 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "edge_parlay",
"comps": [
"SA",
"FL1",
"PPL"
],
"since": "2015-01-01",
"stake": 10,
"max_price": 2.6,
"price_agg": "max"
}