edge doubles: does a real edge compound like the vig does?

← lab · expected double roi if independent -1.6 · ran 7/9/2026

What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.

note	in-sample pockets; same-day legs may be correlated; thin samples on doubles
expected double roi if independent	-1.6

doubles

pnl	-2477.69
bets	3,369
staked	33,690
hit pct	28
roi pct	-7.4
biggest payout	172.18

singles

pnl	-234.82
bets	2,988
staked	29,880
hit pct	53.7
roi pct	-0.8

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

AUC	predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports
Importance	how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance)
Direction	sign of the raw correlation with the outcome
Survives all eras	effect points the same way in every historical era

Spec · the reproducible recipe

{
  "kind": "edge_doubles",
  "seed": 20260709,
  "stake": 10,
  "filters": [
    [
      "EPL",
      "H",
      1,
      2
    ],
    [
      "EPL",
      "H",
      3.5,
      4.5
    ],
    [
      "EL2",
      "H",
      3.5,
      4.5
    ]
  ]
}