proven-logic retro: derivative classes + simple parlays at real prices
← lab · hot ref threshold 3.6 · ran 7/7/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| note | Real opening prices, 7 leagues x 21 seasons, per-season $1000 restarts. Cards/corners legs excluded (no historical odds exist) — their synthetic 5yr grading is soft_retro #185. Parlay legs assumed independent (different matches). |
| hot ref threshold | 3.6 |
classes
| ref draw | {"bets":2876,"hit_rate":0.26,"roi_flat":-0.029,"worst_season |
| unders edge | {"bets":3050,"hit_rate":0.399,"roi_flat":-0.0518,"worst_seas |
| mid dog home | {"bets":4030,"hit_rate":0.294,"roi_flat":-0.0435,"worst_seas |
by league
| PD | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":105,"hit_rate":0.248,"roi_f |
| SA | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":466,"hit_rate":0.27,"roi_fl |
| BL1 | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":196,"hit_rate":0.265,"roi_f |
| DED | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":32,"hit_rate":0.219,"roi_fl |
| EPL | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":2065,"hit_rate":0.259,"roi_ |
| FL1 | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":12,"hit_rate":0.167,"roi_fl |
| PPL | {"per_class":{"ref_draw":{"bets":0,"hit_rate":null,"roi_flat |
simple parlay
| bets | 1,765 |
| hit rate | 0.095 |
| roi flat | -0.1136 |
| worst season | 720.88 |
| league seasons | 21 |
| winning seasons | 7 |
| median season end | 978.26 |
combined portfolio
| bets | 11,721 |
| hit rate | 0.283 |
| roi flat | -0.0526 |
| worst season | 441.76 |
| league seasons | 167 |
| winning seasons | 67 |
| median season end | 973.7 |
control bet every edge
| bets | 40,977 |
| hit rate | 0.334 |
| roi flat | -0.0507 |
| worst season | 40.6 |
| league seasons | 146 |
| winning seasons | 47 |
| median season end | 854.4 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "proven_retro",
"mid_dog": [
2.6,
4.5
],
"run_ids": [
21,
22,
25,
26,
27,
28,
29
],
"under_edge": 0.05
}