season watch: weekly Bayesian re-evaluation, all league-seasons
← lab · league seasons 146 · ran 7/7/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| note | posterior_vs_table counts seasons where the Bayesian leader differed from the table leader at that stage, and who won the title. Live posteriors get priced when the Monday outrights archive has real futures odds to compare against. |
| league seasons | 146 |
calibration
| n | band | mean p | realized | checkpoint |
|---|
| 102 | 20%-50% | 0.322 | 0.333 | 10% |
| 73 | 50%-80% | 0.635 | 0.507 | 10% |
| 50 | 80%-100% | 0.888 | 0.74 | 10% |
| 99 | 20%-50% | 0.334 | 0.374 | 20% |
| 72 | 50%-80% | 0.638 | 0.542 | 20% |
| 50 | 80%-100% | 0.912 | 0.78 | 20% |
| 94 | 20%-50% | 0.321 | 0.309 | 30% |
| 72 | 50%-80% | 0.64 | 0.639 | 30% |
| 56 | 80%-100% | 0.914 | 0.821 | 30% |
| 92 | 20%-50% | 0.339 | 0.326 | 40% |
| 61 | 50%-80% | 0.639 | 0.574 | 40% |
| 64 | 80%-100% | 0.917 | 0.891 | 40% |
| 83 | 20%-50% | 0.337 | 0.325 | 50% |
| 58 | 50%-80% | 0.652 | 0.69 | 50% |
| 71 | 80%-100% | 0.935 | 0.887 | 50% |
| 62 | 20%-50% | 0.318 | 0.306 | 60% |
| 66 | 50%-80% | 0.665 | 0.621 | 60% |
| 76 | 80%-100% | 0.943 | 0.974 | 60% |
| 52 | 20%-50% | 0.344 | 0.288 | 70% |
| 50 | 50%-80% | 0.636 | 0.6 | 70% |
| 91 | 80%-100% | 0.94 | 0.978 | 70% |
| 52 | 20%-50% | 0.334 | 0.365 | 80% |
| 39 | 50%-80% | 0.65 | 0.641 | 80% |
| 99 | 80%-100% | 0.961 | 0.98 | 80% |
| 37 | 20%-50% | 0.333 | 0.297 | 90% |
| 27 | 50%-80% | 0.685 | 0.778 | 90% |
| 113 | 80%-100% | 0.972 | 0.973 | 90% |
live posteriors
| league | played | season | remaining | p champion top6 |
|---|
| MLS | 218 | 2026 | 292 | 6 items |
posterior vs table
| checkpoint | table right | disagreements | posterior right |
|---|
| 10% | 16 | 91 | 49 |
| 20% | 19 | 64 | 33 |
| 30% | 14 | 54 | 27 |
| 40% | 14 | 41 | 18 |
| 50% | 9 | 35 | 19 |
| 60% | 9 | 25 | 12 |
| 70% | 5 | 18 | 10 |
| 80% | 5 | 19 | 11 |
| 90% | 5 | 14 | 8 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "season_watch",
"seed": 424242,
"sims": 1000,
"leagues": [
"EPL",
"PD",
"SA",
"BL1",
"FL1",
"DED",
"PPL"
],
"checkpoints": 10
}