← lab · 23,640 engine × rule × staking combos, each season from $1000 · ran 7/7/2026
| Engine | Rule | Staking | Median end | Mean end | Worst season | Winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBM model #28 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $2151 | $1723 | $5 | 5/9 |
| GBM model #16 → | back away wins at any price, any positive model edge | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1148 | $2 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1282 | $7 | 13/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 2% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1269 | $13 | 13/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1170 | $3 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the Elo gap is low (bottom third of games): back over 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1175 | $9 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1452 | $2 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1730 | $112 | 6/7 |
| GBM model #18 → | back over 2.5 goals priced 1.00–1.80, model edge over 2% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1368 | $14 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #18 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 5% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1212 | $25 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | back anything the model likes priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 10% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1110 | $2 | 11/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | back match-result picks priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 10% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1161 | $9 | 11/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the favourite | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1159 | $35 | 11/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the Elo gap is low (bottom third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1149 | $3 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the referee's card average is low (bottom third of games): back over 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1414 | $30 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $2000 | $2000 | 7/7 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the match stakes is low (bottom third of games): back over 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1182 | $55 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | back anything the model likes priced 1.80–2.60, any positive model edge | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1273 | $2 | 13/21 |
| GBM model #21 → | back over 2.5 goals priced 1.80–2.60, any positive model edge | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1432 | $2 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | back anything the model likes priced 1.00–1.80, model edge over 2% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1145 | $3 | 11/21 |
| GBM model #21 → | back over 2.5 goals priced 1.00–1.80, model edge over 2% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1716 | $4 | 6/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | back over 2.5 goals priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 2% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1440 | $7 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | back home wins at any price, model edge over 5% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1340 | $2 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #21 → | back over 2.5 goals at any price, model edge over 5% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1149 | $2 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | back anything the model likes priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 5% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1185 | $2 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #21 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1147 | $2 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | when the Elo gap is low (bottom third of games): back over 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1432 | $3 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the favourite | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1337 | $23 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #21 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1788 | $514 | 6/7 |
| GBM model #21 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1457 | $75 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #22 → | back under 2.5 goals priced 1.00–1.80, any positive model edge | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1340 | $55 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #22 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1253 | $77 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #22 → | when the expected tempo is low (bottom third of games): back under 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1231 | $121 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #25 → | back over 2.5 goals at any price, model edge over 10% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1453 | $265 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #25 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back over 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1215 | $8 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #27 → | back over 2.5 goals at any price, any positive model edge | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1324 | $2 | 4/7 |
| GBM model #27 → | back over 2.5 goals at any price, model edge over 2% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1869 | $1080 | 7/7 |
| GBM model #27 → | back over 2.5 goals at any price, model edge over 5% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1818 | $724 | 6/7 |
| GBM model #27 → | back over 2.5 goals priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 5% | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1479 | $61 | 5/7 |
| GBM model #27 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back over 2.5 goals | target-chase ×2 | $2000 | $1265 | $37 | 4/7 |
23,640 cells total · leaderboard shows the top by median season end.
| Median end | median season-ending bankroll (start $1000). CAUTION: target-chase staking stops at its target, so when most seasons hit the stop the median pins to exactly the target — read the mean beside it |
| Mean end | average season-ending bankroll — the honest expectation; losing seasons drag it down where the median can't see them |
| Worst season | the ruin check — progression staking looks great until this column |
| Winning | seasons that ended above $1000 / seasons replayed |
| Staking | how bet size was chosen; same rule + different staking = wildly different fates |
{
"kind": "matrix_backtest",
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"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_under",
"ctx_stakes_high_fav",
"ctx_stakes_high_dog",
"ctx_stakes_high_draw",
"ctx_stakes_high_over",
"ctx_stakes_high_under",
"ctx_stakes_low_fav",
"ctx_stakes_low_dog",
"ctx_stakes_low_draw",
"ctx_stakes_low_over",
"ctx_stakes_low_under"
],
"run_ids": [
16,
18,
21,
22,
25,
26,
27,
28
],
"staking": [
"flat_10",
"target_chase_2x",
"stop_loss_ladder",
"kelly_quarter_cap2",
"kelly_half_cap5",
"stake_to_win_2pct",
"martingale_capped",
"paroli_press3",
"fibonacci",
"sqrt_edge",
"drawdown_brake",
"bayesian_adaptive",
"thompson_kelly",
"kelly_of_ruin",
"vol_target_1pct",
"cvar_budget_15",
"entropy_scale"
],
"thompson_seed": 20260705
}