day mode: $100 -> $1000 in one day, structure tournament
← lab · target turn $100 into $1000 same day · days replayed 2,070 · avg slate size 14 · ran 7/7/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| note | Real historical slates from the walk-forward predictions at real opening prices, all leagues. P(hit target) is the mode's objective; mean_end shows what that shot at glory costs in EV. Parlay legs assumed independent (different matches). |
| target | turn $100 into $1000 same day |
| days replayed | 2,070 |
| avg slate size | 14 |
structures
| flat 10 | {"mean_end":93.11,"bust_rate":0.0923,"median_end":85.7,"p_hi |
| half kelly | {"mean_end":96.6,"bust_rate":0,"median_end":93.69,"p_hit_tar |
| half ladder | {"mean_end":88.66,"bust_rate":0.4092,"median_end":3.12,"p_hi |
| parlay top4 | {"mean_end":63.66,"bust_rate":0.9942,"median_end":0,"p_hit_t |
| allin ladder | {"mean_end":93.26,"bust_rate":0.9464,"median_end":0,"p_hit_t |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"edge": 0.05,
"kind": "day_mode",
"runs": null,
"target_x": 10,
"parlay_legs": 4
}