season mode: futures bets at season start, every league-season
← lab · roi 1.3644 · bets 793 · league seasons 144 · ran 7/7/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| roi | 1.3644 |
| bets | 793 |
| note | Futures prices are SYNTHETIC: naive previous-rank base rates + 35% futures-book margin. Prediction-quality numbers (top-pick hit rate, P on actual champion) are price-free and fully honest; the ROI says whether season-sims beat a last-season-rank bookmaker, not a real one. |
| league seasons | 144 |
| mean p on actual champion | 0.4658 |
| top pick champion hit rate | 0.542 |
by market
| top4 | {"roi":1.9944,"bets":209,"hit_rate":0.311} |
| bottom3 | {"roi":0.4825,"bets":365,"hit_rate":0.332} |
| champion | {"roi":2.2328,"bets":219,"hit_rate":0.352} |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "season_mode",
"seed": 424242,
"sims": 1000,
"decay": 0.6,
"leagues": [
"EPL",
"PD",
"SA",
"BL1",
"FL1",
"DED",
"PPL"
],
"edge_ratio": 1.2,
"futures_margin": 0.35
}