← lab · 55,349 engine × rule × staking combos, each season from $1000 · ran 7/7/2026
| Engine | Rule | Staking | Median end | Mean end | Worst season | Winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks at any price, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $2638 | $2638 | $2638 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back anything the model likes priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | martingale capped | $2318 | $2318 | $2318 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | martingale capped | $2318 | $2318 | $2318 | 1/1 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $2251 | $2852 | $5 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 10% | martingale capped | $2248 | $2248 | $2248 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks at any price, model edge over 10% | martingale capped | $2206 | $2206 | $2206 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #28 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $2151 | $1723 | $5 | 5/9 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $2086 | $1873 | $1098 | 4/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $2033 | $2033 | $2033 | 1/1 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $2014 | $1632 | $321 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1997 | $1997 | $1997 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | martingale capped | $1975 | $1975 | $1975 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back anything the model likes priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1924 | $1924 | $1924 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1924 | $1924 | $1924 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1921 | $1921 | $1921 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1908 | $1908 | $1908 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1883 | $1883 | $1883 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | thompson kelly | $1864 | $1864 | $1864 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back anything the model likes priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1824 | $1824 | $1824 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1824 | $1824 | $1824 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 10% | Fibonacci ladder | $1817 | $1817 | $1817 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1780 | $1780 | $1780 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1767 | $1767 | $1767 | 1/1 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1734 | $1555 | $378 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1732 | $1498 | $116 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks at any price, model edge over 10% | Fibonacci ladder | $1726 | $1726 | $1726 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $1721 | $1721 | $1721 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #15 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1714 | $1564 | $7 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1706 | $1511 | $466 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1703 | $1703 | $1703 | 1/1 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1693 | $1603 | $858 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | thompson kelly | $1692 | $1692 | $1692 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back match-result picks at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1667 | $1667 | $1667 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 10% | Fibonacci ladder | $1623 | $1623 | $1623 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1616 | $1616 | $1616 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1615 | $1615 | $1615 | 1/1 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1612 | $1384 | $71 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #10 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | kelly half cap5 | $1605 | $1605 | $1605 | 1/1 |
| GBM model #29 → | when the expected tempo is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $1601 | $1210 | $5 | 5/8 |
| GBM model #15 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1596 | $1500 | $5 | 14/21 |
55,349 cells total · leaderboard shows the top by median season end.
| Median end | median season-ending bankroll (start $1000). CAUTION: target-chase staking stops at its target, so when most seasons hit the stop the median pins to exactly the target — read the mean beside it |
| Mean end | average season-ending bankroll — the honest expectation; losing seasons drag it down where the median can't see them |
| Worst season | the ruin check — progression staking looks great until this column |
| Winning | seasons that ended above $1000 / seasons replayed |
| Staking | how bet size was chosen; same rule + different staking = wildly different fates |
{
"kind": "matrix_backtest",
"rules": [
"public_always_favorite",
"public_always_home",
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"ctx_stakes_high_fav",
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"ctx_stakes_high_draw",
"ctx_stakes_high_over",
"ctx_stakes_high_under",
"ctx_stakes_low_fav",
"ctx_stakes_low_dog",
"ctx_stakes_low_draw",
"ctx_stakes_low_over",
"ctx_stakes_low_under"
],
"run_ids": null,
"staking": [
"flat_10",
"stop_loss_ladder",
"kelly_quarter_cap2",
"kelly_half_cap5",
"stake_to_win_2pct",
"martingale_capped",
"paroli_press3",
"fibonacci",
"sqrt_edge",
"drawdown_brake",
"bayesian_adaptive",
"thompson_kelly",
"kelly_of_ruin",
"vol_target_1pct",
"cvar_budget_15",
"entropy_scale"
]
}