dutch-cover backtest: covered vs straight, same picks
← lab · model run 18 · picks considered 5,068 · ran 7/6/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| note | identical picks and prices; only the structure differs. 'covered' refunds the whole outlay on a draw, 'half_cover' refunds half. median_trough = median of each season's lowest bankroll (the stability number). |
| model run | 18 |
| picks considered | 5,068 |
modes
| covered | {"bets":4650,"wins":1650,"seasons":21,"best_season":1856.65, |
| straight | {"bets":5057,"wins":1947,"seasons":21,"best_season":2247,"fu |
| half cover | {"bets":5006,"wins":1900,"seasons":21,"best_season":2047.73, |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "dutch_backtest",
"min_edge": 0.05,
"model_run": 18,
"total_per_bet": 20
}