relational: does the better-X side get more Y? (football)

← lab · 220 side-vs-side questions tested · ran 7/6/2026

What this is: Side-vs-side questions: does the team better at X actually get more Y? Tested for every factor × every countable outcome, conditioned on how big the X advantage was.

"Does the side better at X get more Y?" — every factor (including invented composites) against every countable outcome, split by how big the X gap was. 0.5 = coin flip; the by-gap column shows the probability when the gap is LARGE (top tercile).

Better at	Gets more	P(better side)	…when gap is big	n	Stable
team.elo	goals	0.681	0.8295	40,458	⏳ yes
team.state_index	goals	0.6666	0.7991	40,374	⏳ yes
team.venue_ppg_l5	goals	0.6484	0.7561	34,922	⏳ yes
team.goal_diff_avg_l5	goals	0.631	0.7413	36,833	⏳ yes
team.season_ppg	goals	0.6327	0.7256	34,791	⏳ yes
team.league_points	goals	0.6353	0.7257	29,292	⏳ yes
team.form_points_l5	goals	0.6207	0.7175	35,775	⏳ yes
team.league_rank	goals	0.3715	0.3137	30,742	⏳ yes
team.goals_against_avg_l5	goals	0.3872	0.2948	35,384	⏳ yes
team.goals_for_avg_l5	goals	0.6075	0.6891	35,563	⏳ yes
team.matches_since_win	goals	0.4068	—	31,368	⏳ yes
team.h2h_win_rate_l5	goals	0.64	—	13,815	⏳ yes
team.shot_diff_avg_l5	goals	0.6111	0.7171	18,801	⏳ yes
team.dominance_l5	goals	0.6093	0.7144	19,055	⏳ yes
team.goals_volatility_l10	goals	0.5763	0.6308	37,783	⏳ yes
team.matches_since_clean_sheet	goals	0.4248	0.3559	33,262	⏳ yes
team.matches_since_blank	goals	0.5748	0.6402	33,201	⏳ yes
team.ht_lead_rate_l20	goals	0.6058	0.7156	16,029	⏳ yes
team.corner_diff_avg_l5	goals	0.5955	0.6715	18,594	⏳ yes
team.shots_for_avg_l5	goals	0.5942	0.6893	18,597	⏳ yes
team.elo	shots_on_target	0.6651	0.7961	5,229	no
team.h2_goals_l10	goals	0.5869	0.6638	17,202	⏳ yes
team.corners_against_avg_l5	goals	0.4161	0.3555	18,326	⏳ yes
team.state_index	shots_on_target	0.65	0.7908	5,269	no
team.season_ppg	shots_on_target	0.6472	0.7596	4,759	no
team.sot_for_avg_l10	shots_on_target	0.6483	0.773	4,609	⏳ yes
team.corners_for_avg_l5	goals	0.5742	0.644	18,306	⏳ yes
team.league_points	shots_on_target	0.6485	0.7493	4,432	no
team.league_rank	shots_on_target	0.3599	0.2357	4,637	no
team.eye_test_v1	shots_on_target	0.6342	0.7243	5,027	⏳ yes
team.elo	corners	0.63	0.7443	5,348	no
team.venue_ppg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6419	0.7551	4,393	no
team.dominance_l5	shots_on_target	0.6602	0.7697	3,408	no
team.shot_diff_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6609	0.7582	3,377	no
team.sot_for_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6311	0.7181	4,855	⏳ yes
team.state_index	corners	0.6244	0.749	5,388	no
team.ht_lead_rate_l20	shots_on_target	0.6622	0.7744	3,123	no
team.goal_diff_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6323	0.7415	4,662	no
team.elo_momentum_l5	goals	0.5452	0.5789	39,092	⏳ yes
team.venue_ppg_l5	corners	0.6336	0.7446	4,476	no
team.skill_v1	shots_on_target	0.6245	0.7368	5,025	⏳ yes
team.sot_for_avg_l10	goals	0.6363	0.7533	3,940	⏳ yes
team.possession_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6203	0.7335	4,988	⏳ yes
team.sot_against_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.3803	0.3072	4,833	⏳ yes
team.pass_acc_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6175	0.7046	4,957	⏳ yes
team.season_ppg	corners	0.6185	0.7183	4,870	no
team.skill_v1	goals	0.6245	0.7498	4,277	⏳ yes
team.eye_test_v1	goals	0.6244	0.7216	4,278	⏳ yes
team.shots_for_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6393	0.7323	3,355	no
team.goals_for_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6199	0.7224	4,520	no
team.form_points_l5	shots_on_target	0.6184	0.7256	4,552	no
team.goal_diff_avg_l5	corners	0.6148	0.7064	4,790	no
team.league_points	corners	0.6169	0.6999	4,534	no
team.skill_v1	corners	0.6085	0.7299	5,149	⏳ yes
team.league_rank	corners	0.388	0.2721	4,752	no
team.sot_for_avg_l5	goals	0.6199	0.7199	4,130	⏳ yes
team.pass_acc_avg_l5	goals	0.6178	0.7111	4,213	⏳ yes
team.h2h_win_rate_l5	shots_on_target	0.6545	—	2,391	⏳ yes
team.sot_against_avg_l5	goals	0.3827	0.3101	4,110	⏳ yes
team.possession_avg_l5	corners	0.6045	0.7264	5,108	⏳ yes
team.dominance_l5	corners	0.6268	0.719	3,465	no
team.possession_avg_l5	goals	0.6146	0.7306	4,245	⏳ yes
team.sot_for_avg_l10	corners	0.6086	0.7148	4,719	⏳ yes
team.shot_diff_avg_l5	corners	0.6273	0.6983	3,434	no
team.ht_lead_rate_l20	corners	0.6325	0.7331	3,162	no
team.pass_acc_avg_l5	corners	0.603	0.706	5,075	⏳ yes
team.corner_diff_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6252	0.7224	3,322	no
team.h2_goals_l10	corners	0.6222	0.6958	3,409	no
team.eye_test_v1	corners	0.5992	0.6788	5,150	⏳ yes
team.form_points_l5	corners	0.6032	0.7031	4,655	no
team.goals_for_avg_l5	corners	0.6034	0.6734	4,629	no
team.sot_for_avg_l3	shots_on_target	0.6017	0.6913	4,740	⏳ yes
team.corners_against_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.3783	0.3038	3,291	no
team.h2_goals_l10	shots_on_target	0.6179	0.7176	3,363	no
team.sot_against_avg_l5	corners	0.4054	0.3317	4,943	⏳ yes
team.sot_for_avg_l5	corners	0.5941	0.6714	4,976	⏳ yes
team.sot_for_avg_l3	goals	0.6026	0.6949	4,034	⏳ yes
team.corners_against_avg_l5	corners	0.3917	0.31	3,347	no
team.goals_against_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.4063	0.3377	4,452	no
team.shots_for_avg_l5	corners	0.6034	0.6708	3,409	no

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

P(better side)	probability the side better at X ends up with more Y; 0.5 = no relationship
…when gap is big	same probability in the top tercile of X gaps — monotone rise = real leverage
Stable	same direction in both time halves of the data

Spec · the reproducible recipe

{
  "kind": "relational",
  "sport": "football"
}