← lab · 10,122 engine × rule × staking combos, each season from $1000 · ran 7/6/2026
| Engine | Rule | Staking | Median end | Mean end | Worst season | Winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $2056 | $1684 | $271 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1734 | $1555 | $378 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1706 | $1511 | $466 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1704 | $1439 | $125 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #18 → | back match-result picks at any price, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1643 | $1952 | $5 | 12/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1612 | $1384 | $71 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1598 | $1453 | $554 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | martingale capped | $1572 | $1434 | $379 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1567 | $1495 | $965 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | martingale capped | $1490 | $1406 | $972 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back anything the model likes at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1489 | $1585 | $5 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back match-result picks at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1489 | $1585 | $5 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1479 | $1565 | $748 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1474 | $1396 | $28 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1373 | $1167 | $8 | 12/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1355 | $1427 | $474 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1346 | $1384 | $197 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1339 | $1366 | $1036 | 4/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1324 | $1612 | $405 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1322 | $1352 | $35 | 11/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1316 | $1457 | $527 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #18 → | back match-result picks at any price, model edge over 2% | martingale capped | $1307 | $1213 | $5 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1299 | $1128 | $5 | 12/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | paroli press3 | $1296 | $1423 | $952 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #18 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1295 | $1111 | $14 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $1289 | $1418 | $7 | 12/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | back home wins at any price, model edge over 5% | martingale capped | $1285 | $1124 | $90 | 13/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | paroli press3 | $1276 | $1372 | $1145 | 4/4 |
| GBM model #20 → | back home wins at any price, model edge over 2% | martingale capped | $1273 | $1233 | $65 | 15/21 |
| GBM model #18 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back under 2.5 goals | martingale capped | $1271 | $1074 | $426 | 5/7 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1260 | $1368 | $546 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back away wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | Fibonacci ladder | $1251 | $1169 | $803 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | kelly half cap5 | $1250 | $1158 | $661 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back anything the model likes at any price, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1247 | $1493 | $5 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back match-result picks at any price, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1247 | $1493 | $5 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #18 → | back under 2.5 goals priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 10% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1224 | $926 | 6/7 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 2% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1158 | $659 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1154 | $669 | 13/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1160 | $618 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | paroli press3 | $1243 | $1293 | $1005 | 4/4 |
10,122 cells total · leaderboard shows the top by median season end.
| Median end | median season-ending bankroll (start $1000). CAUTION: target-chase staking stops at its target, so when most seasons hit the stop the median pins to exactly the target — read the mean beside it |
| Mean end | average season-ending bankroll — the honest expectation; losing seasons drag it down where the median can't see them |
| Worst season | the ruin check — progression staking looks great until this column |
| Winning | seasons that ended above $1000 / seasons replayed |
| Staking | how bet size was chosen; same rule + different staking = wildly different fates |
{
"kind": "matrix_backtest",
"rules": [
"public_always_favorite",
"public_always_home",
"public_always_away",
"public_always_over25",
"public_always_under25",
"public_always_btts_yes",
"public_draws_blind",
"public_longshot_lover",
"public_odds_on_banker",
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"model_any_any_e2",
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"model_any_longshot_e2",
"model_1x2_longshot_e2",
"model_draws_longshot_e2",
"model_homes_longshot_e2",
"model_aways_longshot_e2",
"model_overs_longshot_e2",
"model_unders_longshot_e2",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e2",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e2",
"model_any_any_e5",
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"model_draws_any_e5",
"model_homes_any_e5",
"model_aways_any_e5",
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"model_unders_mid_dog_e5",
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"model_btts_no_mid_dog_e5",
"model_any_longshot_e5",
"model_1x2_longshot_e5",
"model_draws_longshot_e5",
"model_homes_longshot_e5",
"model_aways_longshot_e5",
"model_overs_longshot_e5",
"model_unders_longshot_e5",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e5",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e5",
"model_any_any_e10",
"model_1x2_any_e10",
"model_draws_any_e10",
"model_homes_any_e10",
"model_aways_any_e10",
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"model_overs_longshot_e10",
"model_unders_longshot_e10",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e10",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e10",
"ctx_mismatch_high_fav",
"ctx_mismatch_high_dog",
"ctx_mismatch_high_draw",
"ctx_mismatch_high_over",
"ctx_mismatch_high_under",
"ctx_mismatch_low_fav",
"ctx_mismatch_low_dog",
"ctx_mismatch_low_draw",
"ctx_mismatch_low_over",
"ctx_mismatch_low_under",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_fav",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_dog",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_draw",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_over",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_under",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_fav",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_dog",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_draw",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_over",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_under",
"ctx_tempo_high_fav",
"ctx_tempo_high_dog",
"ctx_tempo_high_draw",
"ctx_tempo_high_over",
"ctx_tempo_high_under",
"ctx_tempo_low_fav",
"ctx_tempo_low_dog",
"ctx_tempo_low_draw",
"ctx_tempo_low_over",
"ctx_tempo_low_under",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_under",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_under",
"ctx_stakes_high_fav",
"ctx_stakes_high_dog",
"ctx_stakes_high_draw",
"ctx_stakes_high_over",
"ctx_stakes_high_under",
"ctx_stakes_low_fav",
"ctx_stakes_low_dog",
"ctx_stakes_low_draw",
"ctx_stakes_low_over",
"ctx_stakes_low_under"
],
"run_ids": [
20,
18,
17,
16
],
"staking": [
"flat_10",
"kelly_quarter_cap2",
"kelly_half_cap5",
"stake_to_win_2pct",
"martingale_capped",
"paroli_press3",
"fibonacci",
"sqrt_edge",
"drawdown_brake",
"bayesian_adaptive",
"thompson_kelly",
"kelly_of_ruin",
"vol_target_1pct",
"cvar_budget_15",
"entropy_scale"
]
}