book profiling: who is generous, who is asleep
← lab · days 30 · n quotes 4,744 · ran 7/6/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| days | 30 |
| note | avg_edge_bps > 0 = the book prices better than the cross-book median (generous or slow); best_share = how often it posts the top price. Line-shop these first; they are also the books whose stale quotes the sniper strategies hit. |
| n quotes | 4,744 |
books
| book | quotes | best share | avg edge bps |
|---|
| betfair_ex_eu | 54 | 0.3519 | 122.5 |
| matchbook | 54 | 0.3148 | 122 |
| onexbet | 54 | 0.2778 | 89.5 |
| af_pinnacle | 130 | 0.2077 | 76.6 |
| af_1xbet | 182 | 0.2747 | 63.9 |
| unibet_nl | 54 | 0.0926 | 61 |
| af_betano | 182 | 0.1758 | 54.9 |
| unibet_se | 54 | 0.0556 | 52.1 |
| pinnacle | 54 | 0 | 35.6 |
| af_marathonbet | 182 | 0.0934 | 33.8 |
| betsson | 54 | 0.0556 | 30.4 |
| betonlineag | 54 | 0.0185 | 30.3 |
| nordicbet | 54 | 0.0556 | 30.2 |
| af_dafabet | 72 | 0.2361 | 25.6 |
| betanysports | 54 | 0.0185 | 13.3 |
| marathonbet | 54 | 0 | 9.5 |
| af_betfair | 182 | 0.1593 | 1.6 |
| unibet_fr | 54 | 0.1481 | -4.6 |
| af_bet365 | 182 | 0.0714 | -7.6 |
| betclic_fr | 54 | 0 | -8.9 |
| gtbets | 54 | 0.0185 | -21.4 |
| tipico_de | 54 | 0.037 | -23.7 |
| codere_it | 54 | 0 | -24.2 |
| af_unibet | 182 | 0.0495 | -24.6 |
| everygame | 54 | 0 | -29.8 |
| leovegas_se | 54 | 0 | -30.8 |
| kalshi | 51 | 0.0392 | -36.5 |
| winamax_de | 54 | 0.0741 | -38.4 |
| af_sbo | 78 | 0.0256 | -38.6 |
| af_william_hill | 130 | 0.1077 | -52 |
| af_10bet | 182 | 0.0275 | -52.6 |
| mybookieag | 54 | 0.037 | -59.6 |
| winamax_fr | 54 | 0.0185 | -71.9 |
| af_betvictor | 182 | 0.0165 | -96.6 |
| pmu_fr | 54 | 0 | -98 |
| williamhill | 54 | 0 | -116 |
| sport888 | 54 | 0 | -169.2 |
by book market
| book | market | quotes | best price share | generosity p90 bps | avg edge vs consensus bps |
|---|
| betfair_ex_eu | Match result | 54 | 0.3519 | 195.5 | 122.5 |
| matchbook | Match result | 54 | 0.3148 | 220.9 | 122 |
| af_1xbet | Match result | 78 | 0.3077 | 205.4 | 108.5 |
| onexbet | Match result | 54 | 0.2778 | 170.1 | 89.5 |
| af_pinnacle | Over/Under 2.5 goals | 52 | 0.3077 | 176.3 | 80.1 |
| af_betano | Match result | 78 | 0.2051 | 239.9 | 79.4 |
| af_pinnacle | Match result | 78 | 0.141 | 152.2 | 74.3 |
| af_1xbet | Over/Under 2.5 goals | 52 | 0.1923 | 156 | 65.5 |
| af_marathonbet | Both teams to score | 52 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"days": 30,
"kind": "book_profile"
}