ref-line scan
← lab · n refs known 400 · tercile threshold 3.8 · ran 7/6/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| n refs known | 400 |
| tercile threshold | 3.8 |
findings
| match | kickoff | referee | verdict | cards line | contest id | ref avg cards |
|---|
| United States v Belgium | 2026-07-07 00:00:00+00:00 | A. Makhadmeh | ref_unknown_to_us | 3.5 | 9,933 | — |
| Argentina v Egypt | 2026-07-07 16:00:00+00:00 | F. Letexier | ref_unknown_to_us | 3.5 | 105,099 | — |
| Switzerland v Colombia | 2026-07-07 20:00:00+00:00 | I. Barton | ref_unknown_to_us | 3.5 | 105,100 | — |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "ref_lines",
"horizon_h": 72
}