regime alerts 2026-07-06
← lab · n games 42 · n alerts 1 · ran 7/6/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| note | teams whose rolling-form numbers may describe a team that no longer exists — the market prices form, form lies after regime changes. Grade after a season of alerts. |
| n games | 42 |
| n alerts | 1 |
alerts
| side | team | flags | match | kickoff | severity | contest id |
|---|
| away | Egypt | 1 items | Argentina v Egypt | 2026-07-07 16:00:00+00:00 | 2 | 105,099 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "regime_alerts",
"horizon_h": 96
}