← lab · games 92 · games with 1x2 price 77 · games with soft prices 24 · ran 7/6/2026
| note | real prices only: Kalshi fee-adjusted candlestick asks for 1x2 everywhere; our archived/harvested book prices for totals/cards/corners where they exist. Walk-forward sims per match day; no synthetic pricing anywhere. |
| games | 92 |
| games with 1x2 price | 77 |
| games with soft prices | 24 |
| wc ko unders v1 | {"won":3,"bets":4,"lost":1,"final":1025.7,"history":[{"bet": |
| wc sim value v1 | {"won":8,"bets":57,"lost":49,"final":786.92,"history":[{"bet |
| cards over ref v1 | {"won":0,"bets":0,"lost":0,"final":1000,"history":[]} |
| wc upset hunter v1 | {"won":4,"bets":28,"lost":24,"final":988.32,"history":[{"bet |
| corners style over v1 | {"won":0,"bets":0,"lost":0,"final":1000,"history":[]} |
| sim value kelly of ruin | {"won":8,"bets":57,"lost":49,"final":620.51,"history":[{"bet |
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
{
"kind": "wc_retro",
"price_sources": [
"kalshi candles",
"af archive + harvest"
]
}