soft-market retro from 2021-07-01: cards/corners gates at synthetic prices
← lab · from 2021-07-01 · ran 7/6/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| from | 2021-07-01 |
| price model | prior base rate x (1+0.06/2) implied, pessimistic +0.04 shade variant |
results
| fair margin | {"combined":{"bets":0,"path":[],"hit_rate":null,"flat_peak": |
| overs shaded | {"combined":{"bets":0,"path":[],"hit_rate":null,"flat_peak": |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"from": "2021-07-01",
"kind": "soft_retro",
"margin": 0.06,
"over_shade": 0.04
}