relational: does the better-X side get more Y? (football)

← lab · 168 side-vs-side questions tested · ran 7/5/2026

What this is: Side-vs-side questions: does the team better at X actually get more Y? Tested for every factor × every countable outcome, conditioned on how big the X advantage was.

"Does the side better at X get more Y?" — every factor (including invented composites) against every countable outcome, split by how big the X gap was. 0.5 = coin flip; the by-gap column shows the probability when the gap is LARGE (top tercile).

Better at	Gets more	P(better side)	…when gap is big	n	Stable
team.elo	goals	0.6829	0.8325	39,496	⏳ yes
team.state_index	goals	0.6686	0.8014	39,404	⏳ yes
team.venue_ppg_l5	goals	0.649	0.7573	34,136	⏳ yes
team.goal_diff_avg_l5	goals	0.6323	0.7425	36,000	⏳ yes
team.season_ppg	goals	0.6335	0.7276	33,893	⏳ yes
team.league_points	goals	0.6364	0.7268	28,468	⏳ yes
team.form_points_l5	goals	0.6219	0.7191	34,939	⏳ yes
team.league_rank	goals	0.3704	0.3139	29,875	⏳ yes
team.goals_against_avg_l5	goals	0.3859	0.292	34,571	⏳ yes
team.goals_for_avg_l5	goals	0.6084	0.6903	34,728	⏳ yes
team.matches_since_win	goals	0.4052	—	30,622	⏳ yes
team.h2h_win_rate_l5	goals	0.6404	—	13,765	⏳ yes
team.shot_diff_avg_l5	goals	0.6111	0.7171	18,801	⏳ yes
team.dominance_l5	goals	0.6093	0.7144	19,055	⏳ yes
team.goals_volatility_l10	goals	0.5774	0.6323	36,927	⏳ yes
team.matches_since_blank	goals	0.5764	0.6425	32,371	⏳ yes
team.matches_since_clean_sheet	goals	0.4237	0.3531	32,427	⏳ yes
team.ht_lead_rate_l20	goals	0.6058	0.7156	16,029	⏳ yes
team.corner_diff_avg_l5	goals	0.5955	0.6715	18,594	⏳ yes
team.shots_for_avg_l5	goals	0.5942	0.6893	18,597	⏳ yes
team.elo	shots_on_target	0.6919	0.8071	3,557	no
team.h2_goals_l10	goals	0.5869	0.6638	17,202	⏳ yes
team.corners_against_avg_l5	goals	0.4161	0.3555	18,326	⏳ yes
team.state_index	shots_on_target	0.6815	0.8104	3,557	no
team.corners_for_avg_l5	goals	0.5742	0.644	18,306	⏳ yes
team.season_ppg	shots_on_target	0.6672	0.8083	3,236	no
team.dominance_l5	shots_on_target	0.6602	0.7697	3,408	no
team.shot_diff_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6609	0.7582	3,377	no
team.league_points	shots_on_target	0.6678	0.7683	3,067	no
team.skill_v1	shots_on_target	0.6578	0.788	3,440	⏳ yes
team.elo	corners	0.6538	0.7507	3,619	no
team.state_index	corners	0.6518	0.7676	3,619	no
team.ht_lead_rate_l20	shots_on_target	0.6637	0.7743	3,045	no
team.league_rank	shots_on_target	0.34	0.1043	3,185	no
team.elo_momentum_l5	goals	0.5456	0.5785	38,179	⏳ yes
team.sot_for_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6512	0.7518	3,320	⏳ yes
team.possession_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.647	0.7798	3,414	⏳ yes
team.venue_ppg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6493	0.774	3,265	no
team.pass_acc_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6458	0.7522	3,402	⏳ yes
team.goal_diff_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6465	0.7595	3,341	no
team.skill_v1	goals	0.6558	0.7859	2,926	⏳ yes
team.skill_v1	corners	0.6416	0.771	3,504	⏳ yes
team.season_ppg	corners	0.6441	0.7671	3,293	no
team.venue_ppg_l5	corners	0.643	0.7629	3,305	no
team.shots_for_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6393	0.7323	3,355	no
team.league_points	corners	0.6421	0.716	3,118	no
team.goal_diff_avg_l5	corners	0.634	0.7291	3,410	no
team.league_rank	corners	0.3633	0.1446	3,245	no
team.form_points_l5	shots_on_target	0.635	0.754	3,247	no
team.sot_against_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.3658	0.2644	3,291	⏳ yes
team.possession_avg_l5	corners	0.6299	0.7609	3,477	⏳ yes
team.sot_for_avg_l5	goals	0.6441	0.75	2,821	⏳ yes
team.pass_acc_avg_l5	goals	0.6422	0.7503	2,890	⏳ yes
team.pass_acc_avg_l5	corners	0.6299	0.7537	3,464	⏳ yes
team.h2h_win_rate_l5	shots_on_target	0.6567	—	2,333	⏳ yes
team.possession_avg_l5	goals	0.6398	0.7662	2,904	⏳ yes
team.goals_for_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6318	0.7425	3,224	no
team.dominance_l5	corners	0.6268	0.719	3,465	no
team.shot_diff_avg_l5	corners	0.6273	0.6983	3,434	no
team.corner_diff_avg_l5	shots_on_target	0.6252	0.7224	3,322	no

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

P(better side)	probability the side better at X ends up with more Y; 0.5 = no relationship
…when gap is big	same probability in the top tercile of X gaps — monotone rise = real leverage
Stable	same direction in both time halves of the data

Spec · the reproducible recipe

{
  "kind": "relational",
  "sport": "football"
}