sweep: match.btts (bool)
← lab · AUC 0.511 (no real pattern — honest result) · ran 7/4/2026
What this is: Asks which pre-match factors drive one specific outcome, using a walk-forward model and permutation importance.
| Factor | Importance | Direction | Survives all eras? |
|---|
| market.p_away | 0.0083 | ↑ +0.025 | ⏳ yes |
| away__team.shots_for_avg_l5 | 0.0058 | ↑ +0.035 | ⏳ yes |
| match.tempo | 0.0052 | ↑ +0.025 | ⏳ yes |
| away__team.conversion_l5 | 0.0047 | ↑ +0.003 | no |
| market.p_draw | 0.0047 | ↑ +0.032 | no |
| home__team.corners_volatility_l10 | 0.0045 | ↓ -0.010 | no |
| ratio__team.ht_lead_rate_l20 | 0.0044 | ↓ -0.018 | no |
| diff__team.goal_diff_avg_l5 | 0.0042 | ↓ -0.023 | ⏳ yes |
| match.ref_fouls_avg | 0.0042 | ↓ -0.026 | ⏳ yes |
| away__t3__team.matches_since_blank | 0.0039 | ↑ +0.003 | no |
| ratio__team.cards_avg_l5 | 0.0034 | ↑ +0.000 | no |
| home__t3__team.defensive_leak_l5 | 0.0033 | ↑ +0.004 | no |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"name": "sweep: match.btts (bool)",
"sport": "football",
"target": {
"metric": "match.btts"
},
"features": "all"
}