sweep: match.rainfall_mm >= 0
← lab · n 9,880 · ran 7/4/2026
What this is: Asks which pre-match factors drive one specific outcome, using a walk-forward model and permutation importance.
| n | 9,880 |
| note | all CV folds were single-class; target too rare for this slice |
| auc mean | — |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"name": "sweep: match.rainfall_mm >= 0",
"sport": "football",
"target": {
"op": ">=",
"value": 0,
"metric": "match.rainfall_mm"
},
"features": "all"
}