← lab · 3,110 engine × rule × staking combos, each season from $1000 · ran 7/4/2026
| Engine | Rule | Staking | Median end | Mean end | Worst season | Winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $2218 | $1843 | $70 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1946 | $1743 | $506 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1773 | $1534 | $492 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1752 | $1553 | $400 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1690 | $1647 | $1471 | 4/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1615 | $1649 | $375 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1599 | $1640 | $488 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | martingale capped | $1571 | $1414 | $317 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1563 | $1614 | $1287 | 4/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1554 | $1477 | $855 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1525 | $1362 | $71 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | martingale capped | $1490 | $1366 | $838 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $1407 | $1300 | $315 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1404 | $1433 | $401 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 2% | Fibonacci ladder | $1379 | $1340 | $435 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back match-result picks priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1369 | $1354 | $21 | 13/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1346 | $1381 | $427 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | Fibonacci ladder | $1333 | $1474 | $26 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1330 | $1260 | $21 | 11/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | paroli press3 | $1313 | $1370 | $952 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1313 | $1215 | $166 | 13/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1305 | $1284 | $512 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back anything the model likes at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1300 | $1566 | $5 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back match-result picks at any price, any positive model edge | Fibonacci ladder | $1300 | $1566 | $5 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back away wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | Fibonacci ladder | $1267 | $1200 | $803 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | martingale capped | $1257 | $1657 | $385 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | Fibonacci ladder | $1253 | $1325 | $982 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | kelly half cap5 | $1250 | $1158 | $661 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 2% | paroli press3 | $1244 | $1300 | $934 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 2% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1158 | $659 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1154 | $669 | 13/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1160 | $618 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | martingale capped | $1241 | $1148 | $727 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | paroli press3 | $1239 | $1305 | $1173 | 4/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1233 | $1111 | $146 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | paroli press3 | $1228 | $1225 | $992 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | flat 10 | $1220 | $1180 | $773 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back anything the model likes at any price, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1214 | $1272 | $4 | 11/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins at any price, any positive model edge | martingale capped | $1213 | $1092 | $147 | 13/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back anything the model likes priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | Fibonacci ladder | $1208 | $1075 | $206 | 2/4 |
3,110 cells total · leaderboard shows the top by median season end.
| Median end | median season-ending bankroll (start $1000). CAUTION: target-chase staking stops at its target, so when most seasons hit the stop the median pins to exactly the target — read the mean beside it |
| Mean end | average season-ending bankroll — the honest expectation; losing seasons drag it down where the median can't see them |
| Worst season | the ruin check — progression staking looks great until this column |
| Winning | seasons that ended above $1000 / seasons replayed |
| Staking | how bet size was chosen; same rule + different staking = wildly different fates |
{
"kind": "matrix_backtest",
"rules": [
"public_always_favorite",
"public_always_home",
"public_always_away",
"public_always_over25",
"public_always_under25",
"public_always_btts_yes",
"public_draws_blind",
"public_longshot_lover",
"public_odds_on_banker",
"model_any_any_e0",
"model_1x2_any_e0",
"model_draws_any_e0",
"model_homes_any_e0",
"model_aways_any_e0",
"model_overs_any_e0",
"model_unders_any_e0",
"model_btts_yes_any_e0",
"model_btts_no_any_e0",
"model_any_odds_on_e0",
"model_1x2_odds_on_e0",
"model_draws_odds_on_e0",
"model_homes_odds_on_e0",
"model_aways_odds_on_e0",
"model_overs_odds_on_e0",
"model_unders_odds_on_e0",
"model_btts_yes_odds_on_e0",
"model_btts_no_odds_on_e0",
"model_any_even_zone_e0",
"model_1x2_even_zone_e0",
"model_draws_even_zone_e0",
"model_homes_even_zone_e0",
"model_aways_even_zone_e0",
"model_overs_even_zone_e0",
"model_unders_even_zone_e0",
"model_btts_yes_even_zone_e0",
"model_btts_no_even_zone_e0",
"model_any_mid_dog_e0",
"model_1x2_mid_dog_e0",
"model_draws_mid_dog_e0",
"model_homes_mid_dog_e0",
"model_aways_mid_dog_e0",
"model_overs_mid_dog_e0",
"model_unders_mid_dog_e0",
"model_btts_yes_mid_dog_e0",
"model_btts_no_mid_dog_e0",
"model_any_longshot_e0",
"model_1x2_longshot_e0",
"model_draws_longshot_e0",
"model_homes_longshot_e0",
"model_aways_longshot_e0",
"model_overs_longshot_e0",
"model_unders_longshot_e0",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e0",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e0",
"model_any_any_e2",
"model_1x2_any_e2",
"model_draws_any_e2",
"model_homes_any_e2",
"model_aways_any_e2",
"model_overs_any_e2",
"model_unders_any_e2",
"model_btts_yes_any_e2",
"model_btts_no_any_e2",
"model_any_odds_on_e2",
"model_1x2_odds_on_e2",
"model_draws_odds_on_e2",
"model_homes_odds_on_e2",
"model_aways_odds_on_e2",
"model_overs_odds_on_e2",
"model_unders_odds_on_e2",
"model_btts_yes_odds_on_e2",
"model_btts_no_odds_on_e2",
"model_any_even_zone_e2",
"model_1x2_even_zone_e2",
"model_draws_even_zone_e2",
"model_homes_even_zone_e2",
"model_aways_even_zone_e2",
"model_overs_even_zone_e2",
"model_unders_even_zone_e2",
"model_btts_yes_even_zone_e2",
"model_btts_no_even_zone_e2",
"model_any_mid_dog_e2",
"model_1x2_mid_dog_e2",
"model_draws_mid_dog_e2",
"model_homes_mid_dog_e2",
"model_aways_mid_dog_e2",
"model_overs_mid_dog_e2",
"model_unders_mid_dog_e2",
"model_btts_yes_mid_dog_e2",
"model_btts_no_mid_dog_e2",
"model_any_longshot_e2",
"model_1x2_longshot_e2",
"model_draws_longshot_e2",
"model_homes_longshot_e2",
"model_aways_longshot_e2",
"model_overs_longshot_e2",
"model_unders_longshot_e2",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e2",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e2",
"model_any_any_e5",
"model_1x2_any_e5",
"model_draws_any_e5",
"model_homes_any_e5",
"model_aways_any_e5",
"model_overs_any_e5",
"model_unders_any_e5",
"model_btts_yes_any_e5",
"model_btts_no_any_e5",
"model_any_odds_on_e5",
"model_1x2_odds_on_e5",
"model_draws_odds_on_e5",
"model_homes_odds_on_e5",
"model_aways_odds_on_e5",
"model_overs_odds_on_e5",
"model_unders_odds_on_e5",
"model_btts_yes_odds_on_e5",
"model_btts_no_odds_on_e5",
"model_any_even_zone_e5",
"model_1x2_even_zone_e5",
"model_draws_even_zone_e5",
"model_homes_even_zone_e5",
"model_aways_even_zone_e5",
"model_overs_even_zone_e5",
"model_unders_even_zone_e5",
"model_btts_yes_even_zone_e5",
"model_btts_no_even_zone_e5",
"model_any_mid_dog_e5",
"model_1x2_mid_dog_e5",
"model_draws_mid_dog_e5",
"model_homes_mid_dog_e5",
"model_aways_mid_dog_e5",
"model_overs_mid_dog_e5",
"model_unders_mid_dog_e5",
"model_btts_yes_mid_dog_e5",
"model_btts_no_mid_dog_e5",
"model_any_longshot_e5",
"model_1x2_longshot_e5",
"model_draws_longshot_e5",
"model_homes_longshot_e5",
"model_aways_longshot_e5",
"model_overs_longshot_e5",
"model_unders_longshot_e5",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e5",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e5",
"model_any_any_e10",
"model_1x2_any_e10",
"model_draws_any_e10",
"model_homes_any_e10",
"model_aways_any_e10",
"model_overs_any_e10",
"model_unders_any_e10",
"model_btts_yes_any_e10",
"model_btts_no_any_e10",
"model_any_odds_on_e10",
"model_1x2_odds_on_e10",
"model_draws_odds_on_e10",
"model_homes_odds_on_e10",
"model_aways_odds_on_e10",
"model_overs_odds_on_e10",
"model_unders_odds_on_e10",
"model_btts_yes_odds_on_e10",
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"model_any_even_zone_e10",
"model_1x2_even_zone_e10",
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"model_homes_even_zone_e10",
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"model_overs_even_zone_e10",
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"model_btts_yes_even_zone_e10",
"model_btts_no_even_zone_e10",
"model_any_mid_dog_e10",
"model_1x2_mid_dog_e10",
"model_draws_mid_dog_e10",
"model_homes_mid_dog_e10",
"model_aways_mid_dog_e10",
"model_overs_mid_dog_e10",
"model_unders_mid_dog_e10",
"model_btts_yes_mid_dog_e10",
"model_btts_no_mid_dog_e10",
"model_any_longshot_e10",
"model_1x2_longshot_e10",
"model_draws_longshot_e10",
"model_homes_longshot_e10",
"model_aways_longshot_e10",
"model_overs_longshot_e10",
"model_unders_longshot_e10",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e10",
"model_btts_no_longshot_e10",
"ctx_mismatch_high_fav",
"ctx_mismatch_high_dog",
"ctx_mismatch_high_draw",
"ctx_mismatch_high_over",
"ctx_mismatch_high_under",
"ctx_mismatch_low_fav",
"ctx_mismatch_low_dog",
"ctx_mismatch_low_draw",
"ctx_mismatch_low_over",
"ctx_mismatch_low_under",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_fav",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_dog",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_draw",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_over",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_under",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_fav",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_dog",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_draw",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_over",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_under",
"ctx_tempo_high_fav",
"ctx_tempo_high_dog",
"ctx_tempo_high_draw",
"ctx_tempo_high_over",
"ctx_tempo_high_under",
"ctx_tempo_low_fav",
"ctx_tempo_low_dog",
"ctx_tempo_low_draw",
"ctx_tempo_low_over",
"ctx_tempo_low_under",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_under",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_under",
"ctx_stakes_high_fav",
"ctx_stakes_high_dog",
"ctx_stakes_high_draw",
"ctx_stakes_high_over",
"ctx_stakes_high_under",
"ctx_stakes_low_fav",
"ctx_stakes_low_dog",
"ctx_stakes_low_draw",
"ctx_stakes_low_over",
"ctx_stakes_low_under"
],
"run_ids": [
16,
17
],
"staking": [
"flat_10",
"kelly_quarter_cap2",
"kelly_half_cap5",
"stake_to_win_2pct",
"martingale_capped",
"paroli_press3",
"fibonacci",
"sqrt_edge",
"drawdown_brake",
"bayesian_adaptive"
]
}