← lab · 933 engine × rule × staking combos, each season from $1000 · ran 7/4/2026
| Engine | Rule | Staking | Median end | Mean end | Worst season | Winning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | kelly half cap5 | $1250 | $1158 | $661 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 2% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1158 | $659 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1154 | $669 | 13/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | kelly half cap5 | $1244 | $1160 | $618 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, any positive model edge | flat 10 | $1220 | $1180 | $773 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is high (top third of games): back the draw | flat 10 | $1186 | $1190 | $963 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, any positive model edge | flat 10 | $1144 | $1139 | $972 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 2% | flat 10 | $1132 | $1150 | $923 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | flat 10 | $1117 | $1114 | $999 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 5% | kelly half cap5 | $1114 | $1114 | $877 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the draw | flat 10 | $1109 | $1140 | $1003 | 4/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | kelly quarter cap2 | $1107 | $1069 | $863 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 10% | kelly half cap5 | $1106 | $1125 | $874 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 2% | kelly quarter cap2 | $1104 | $1069 | $862 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | kelly quarter cap2 | $1104 | $1067 | $868 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | kelly quarter cap2 | $1104 | $1069 | $834 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 2% | flat 10 | $1103 | $1128 | $1022 | 4/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 2% | kelly half cap5 | $1087 | $1082 | $842 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, any positive model edge | kelly half cap5 | $1086 | $1077 | $849 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | flat 10 | $1083 | $1012 | $767 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the favourite | kelly half cap5 | $1079 | $1028 | $559 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the skill mismatch is low (bottom third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | flat 10 | $1077 | $1050 | $849 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the expected tempo is low (bottom third of games): back the draw | kelly half cap5 | $1073 | $1088 | $954 | 3/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the draw | flat 10 | $1073 | $1025 | $720 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the favourite | kelly half cap5 | $1073 | $1095 | $973 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the referee's card average is low (bottom third of games): back the favourite | kelly half cap5 | $1072 | $1075 | $513 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | flat 10 | $1066 | $1041 | $801 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws at any price, model edge over 5% | flat 10 | $1065 | $1053 | $830 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back draws priced 4.50+, model edge over 5% | flat 10 | $1065 | $1075 | $902 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 10% | flat 10 | $1060 | $1037 | $914 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the match stakes is high (top third of games): back the draw | kelly half cap5 | $1059 | $1074 | $944 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, any positive model edge | flat 10 | $1056 | $1042 | $913 | 15/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is high (top third of games): back the draw | flat 10 | $1054 | $1117 | $953 | 3/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the expected tempo is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | kelly quarter cap2 | $1048 | $940 | $379 | 11/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 2% | flat 10 | $1047 | $1042 | $923 | 14/21 |
| GBM model #16 → | back home wins priced 2.60–4.50, model edge over 5% | flat 10 | $1047 | $1035 | $923 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 5% | kelly quarter cap2 | $1045 | $1047 | $962 | 2/4 |
| GBM model #16 → | when the referee's card average is high (top third of games): back the underdog (3.0+) | flat 10 | $1045 | $1031 | $790 | 14/21 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | back home wins priced 1.80–2.60, model edge over 10% | kelly quarter cap2 | $1041 | $1048 | $947 | 2/4 |
| Poisson sim #17 → | when the Elo gap is low (bottom third of games): back the draw | flat 10 | $1041 | $1060 | $902 | 3/4 |
933 cells total · leaderboard shows the top by median season end.
| Median end | median season-ending bankroll (start $1000). CAUTION: target-chase staking stops at its target, so when most seasons hit the stop the median pins to exactly the target — read the mean beside it |
| Mean end | average season-ending bankroll — the honest expectation; losing seasons drag it down where the median can't see them |
| Worst season | the ruin check — progression staking looks great until this column |
| Winning | seasons that ended above $1000 / seasons replayed |
| Staking | how bet size was chosen; same rule + different staking = wildly different fates |
{
"kind": "matrix_backtest",
"rules": [
"public_always_favorite",
"public_always_home",
"public_always_away",
"public_always_over25",
"public_always_under25",
"public_always_btts_yes",
"public_draws_blind",
"public_longshot_lover",
"public_odds_on_banker",
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"model_draws_longshot_e2",
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"model_btts_yes_longshot_e2",
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"model_any_any_e5",
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"model_1x2_longshot_e5",
"model_draws_longshot_e5",
"model_homes_longshot_e5",
"model_aways_longshot_e5",
"model_overs_longshot_e5",
"model_unders_longshot_e5",
"model_btts_yes_longshot_e5",
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"model_any_any_e10",
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"ctx_mismatch_high_fav",
"ctx_mismatch_high_dog",
"ctx_mismatch_high_draw",
"ctx_mismatch_high_over",
"ctx_mismatch_high_under",
"ctx_mismatch_low_fav",
"ctx_mismatch_low_dog",
"ctx_mismatch_low_draw",
"ctx_mismatch_low_over",
"ctx_mismatch_low_under",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_fav",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_dog",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_draw",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_over",
"ctx_elo_gap_high_under",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_fav",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_dog",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_draw",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_over",
"ctx_elo_gap_low_under",
"ctx_tempo_high_fav",
"ctx_tempo_high_dog",
"ctx_tempo_high_draw",
"ctx_tempo_high_over",
"ctx_tempo_high_under",
"ctx_tempo_low_fav",
"ctx_tempo_low_dog",
"ctx_tempo_low_draw",
"ctx_tempo_low_over",
"ctx_tempo_low_under",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_high_under",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_fav",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_dog",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_draw",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_over",
"ctx_ref_cards_avg_low_under",
"ctx_stakes_high_fav",
"ctx_stakes_high_dog",
"ctx_stakes_high_draw",
"ctx_stakes_high_over",
"ctx_stakes_high_under",
"ctx_stakes_low_fav",
"ctx_stakes_low_dog",
"ctx_stakes_low_draw",
"ctx_stakes_low_over",
"ctx_stakes_low_under"
],
"run_ids": [
16,
17
],
"staking": [
"flat_10",
"kelly_quarter_cap2",
"kelly_half_cap5"
]
}