market misses: when is the market wrong, and what changed?

← lab · sport football · n matches 26,088 · upset rate p lt 20 0.0501 · ran 7/4/2026

What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.

note	surprise = -log(market prob of realized outcome), de-vigged opening; r2~0 means the market's errors are unconditionally random — any stable nonzero condition is exploitable
sport	football
n matches	26,088
upset rate p lt 20	0.0501
surprise r2 holdout	0.0749

biggest misses

day	match	result	referee	contest id	anomalies sd	p market gave it
2020-03-04	Rangers v Hamilton	A	N Walsh	43,224	{"ratio__team.elo":3.3,"ratio__team.dominance_l5":4.6,"match	0.0312
2011-12-31	Man United v Blackburn	A	M Dean	4,364	{"home__team.goal_diff_avg_l5":3.5,"home__team.goals_for_avg	0.0367
2019-10-06	Man City v Wolves	A	Craig Pawson, England	7,298	{"home__team.elo":3.6,"home__team.goals_for_avg_l5":4.5,"hom	0.0405
2015-12-19	Celtic v Motherwell	A	B Madden	42,247	{"match.elo_gap":3,"diff__team.elo":3,"home__team.elo":3.2,"	0.0415
2021-10-30	Man City v Crystal Palace	A	A. Marriner	8,074	{"home__team.elo":3.1,"market.ah_line":-2.7,"match.mismatch"	0.044
2018-12-22	Man City v Crystal Palace	A	Andre Marriner, England	7,017	{"home__team.elo":3.5,"match.mismatch":3,"ratio__team.elo":2	0.0452
2022-11-12	Man City v Brentford	A	P. Bankes	8,497	{"home__team.elo":3.5,"market.ah_line":-2.7,"match.mismatch"	0.0481
2023-08-26	Celtic v St Johnstone	D	M MacDermid	43,930	{"match.elo_gap":3.3,"home__team.elo":3.4,"market.ah_line":-	0.05
2019-09-14	Norwich v Man City	H	Kevin Friend, England	7,267	{"market.ah_line":3.7,"match.mismatch":4.2,"market.disagreem	0.0514
2014-04-19	Chelsea v Sunderland	A	M Dean	5,280	{"match.tempo":3.1,"ratio__team.venue_ppg_l5":6.5,"ratio__te	0.0518
2005-11-26	Celtic v Dunfermline	A	C MacKay	39,952	{"ratio__team.season_ppg":7.5,"diff__team.conversion_l5":4.7	0.0534
2014-08-30	Man City v Stoke	A	L Mason	5,343	{"diff__team.season_ppg":3.3,"home__team.season_ppg":3.1,"ra	0.0548
2024-03-02	Rangers v Motherwell	A	A Muir	44,085	{"home__team.ht_lead_rate_l20":3.6,"home__team.shots_for_avg	0.0548
2018-04-15	Man United v West Brom	A	Paul Tierney, England	6,792	{"match.form_gap":3,"home__team.conversion_l5":3.3,"ratio__t	0.0551
2022-09-18	St Mirren v Celtic	H	D Robertson	43,729	{"away__team.goal_diff_avg_l5":4.8,"away__team.goals_for_avg	0.0554
2008-09-27	Arsenal v Hull	A	A Wiley	3,090	{"diff__team.shots_for_avg_l5":2.8,"home__team.shot_diff_avg	0.0556
2025-04-06	St Johnstone v Celtic	H	D Dickinson	44,335	{"match.elo_gap":-3.4,"away__team.elo":3.4,"diff__team.elo":	0.0558
2012-10-27	Celtic v Kilmarnock	A	—	41,518	{"home__team.elo":2.9,"match.mismatch":2.7,"ratio__team.elo"	0.057
2013-01-02	Chelsea v QPR	A	L Mason	4,766	{"ratio__team.ht_lead_rate_l20":8.5,"diff__team.goals_volati	0.0575
2021-04-03	Chelsea v West Brom	A	D. Coote	7,891	{"away__team.rest_days":2.8,"home__team.rest_days":2.8,"rati	0.0582
2011-08-21	Celtic v St Johnstone	A	B Winter	41,254	{"diff__team.season_ppg":3.6,"ratio__team.season_ppg":9.1,"r	0.0588
2015-03-04	Celtic v St Johnstone	A	C Murray	42,078	{"home__team.elo":3.1,"home__team.state_index":2.8,"home__t3	0.0597
2021-01-21	Liverpool v Burnley	A	M. Dean	7,784	{"ratio__team.h2_goals_l10":3.8,"ratio__team.h2h_win_rate_l5	0.0615
2009-03-04	Rangers v Inverness C	A	C Murray	40,713	{"ratio__team.elo":2.7,"ratio__team.venue_ppg_l5":5,"home__t	0.0622
2010-11-10	Rangers v Hibernian	A	S O'Reilly	41,073	{"diff__team.h2_goals_l10":4.2,"home__team.h2_goals_l10":4.5	0.0624

gbm importances

feature	importance
match.mismatch	0.0198
away__team.dominance_l5	0.0042
ratio__team.season_ppg	0.0041
home__team.venue_ppg_l5	0.0038
away__t3__team.venue_ppg_l5	0.0027
diff__team.corner_diff_avg_l5	0.0024
away__team.elo	0.0021
ratio__team.matches_since_blank	0.0021
diff__team.corners_against_avg_l5	0.0018
ratio__team.elo	0.0017
ratio__team.ht_lead_rate_l20	0.0016
diff__team.season_ppg	0.0016
away__team.season_ppg	0.0016
diff__team.possession_avg_l5	0.0014
away__t3__team.corner_diff_avg_l5	0.0013
away__t3__team.shots_for_avg_l5	0.0012
away__t3__team.possession_avg_l5	0.0012
match.state_gap	0.0012
market.overround_1x2	0.0012
diff__team.goals_against_avg_l5	0.0011

feature rankings

n	feature	corr by era	corr with surprise	stands test of time	top decile shift sd
26,088	match.mismatch	-0.243, -0.2374, -0.2523, -0.2591	-0.2483	yes	0.675
26,088	home__team.elo	-0.197, -0.2273, -0.2001, -0.1888	-0.2021	yes	0.52
25,837	home__team.state_index	-0.1514, -0.1799, -0.1536, -0.1548	-0.1596	yes	0.459
26,088	ratio__team.elo	-0.1632, -0.1583, -0.1359, -0.1353	-0.147	yes	0.339
3,767	home__team.possession_avg_l5	-0.1851, -0.1067	-0.1428	no	0.225
24,838	home__team.ht_lead_rate_l20	-0.1082, -0.1468, -0.1373, -0.1483	-0.1364	yes	0.306
25,450	home__team.season_ppg	-0.1348, -0.1506, -0.1325, -0.1154	-0.133	yes	0.365
7,943	market.ah_line	0.1349, 0.1315	0.1322	no

Reading the columnswhat each number actually means

AUC	predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports
Importance	how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance)
Direction	sign of the raw correlation with the outcome
Survives all eras	effect points the same way in every historical era

Spec · the reproducible recipe

{
  "kind": "market_misses",
  "sport": "football"
}