sweep of market-aware engine (v2)
← lab · 176 rules tested · 13 survived the unseen years · ran 7/3/2026
What this is: Tries thousands of betting rules on old seasons, then judges the winners ONLY on years they never saw. Survivors are candidate strategies; everything else was luck.
Rules are picked on seasons before 2015-16 and judged ONLY on the years after — in-sample winners are expected by luck alone; the verdict column is the real number. Flat 1-unit stakes.
| Rule | In-sample ROI | n | Verdict ROI | n |
|---|
| 1x2:D edge>0.15 when match.tempo high | 1.9% | 170 | 16.8% | 291 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.1 when match.tempo high | 1.6% | 181 | 12.6% | 324 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.15 when match.state_gap mid | 2.3% | 303 | 11.8% | 398 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.06 when match.tempo low | 2.6% | 301 | 7.6% | 412 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.1 when match.tempo low | 4.2% | 280 | 5.1% | 377 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.15 when market.overround_1x2 low | 5.1% | 246 | 4.5% | 429 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.03 when match.tempo low | 4.4% | 309 | 4.0% | 433 |
| 1x2:H edge>0.03 when market.disagreement_home mid | 1.1% | 660 | 3.3% | 851 |
| 1x2:H edge>0.1 when market.disagreement_home mid | 2.0% | 617 | 3.2% | 721 |
| 1x2:H edge>0.06 when market.disagreement_home mid | 1.5% | 645 | 2.8% | 800 |
| 1x2:D edge>0.1 when market.overround_1x2 low | 4.5% | 265 | 2.5% | 468 |
| 1x2:H edge>0.15 when market.disagreement_home mid | 2.0% | 569 | 1.7% | 623 |
| 1x2:H edge>0.15 when match.state_gap mid | 0.5% | 618 | 0.8% | 547 |
| 1x2:A edge>0.03 when market.disagreement_home high | 2.3% | 453 | -0.1% | 684 |
| 1x2:A edge>0.1 when market.disagreement_home high | 3.6% | 425 | -0.3% | 608 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| Rule | a candidate betting rule: market + selection + edge threshold + regime filter |
| In-sample ROI | return during the selection years — inflated by construction, ignore it |
| Verdict ROI | return on the held-out years the rule never saw — the honest number |
| n | number of bets behind each number; small n = noise |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "strategy_sweep",
"name": "sweep of market-aware engine (v2)",
"split_season": "2015-16",
"backtest_run_id": 4
}