kalshi weather paper
← lab · at 2026-11-11T05:50:02.417847+00:00 · captures 196 · snapshots 0 · ran 11/11/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| at | 2026-11-11T05:50:02.417847+00:00 |
| captures | 196 |
| snapshots | 0 |
| settled markets | 420 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "weather_paper"
}