kalshi maker paper
← lab · at 2026-11-11T05:45:02.973191+00:00 · markets 0 · settled 0 · ran 11/11/2026
What this is: A one-off study — its numbers below are exactly what the run reported.
| at | 2026-11-11T05:45:02.973191+00:00 |
| markets | 0 |
| settled | 0 |
| tracked | 12 |
Reading the columnswhat each number actually means
| AUC | predictability: 0.50 = coin flip, ~0.70 = ceiling for sports |
| Importance | how much the model leans on this factor (permutation importance) |
| Direction | sign of the raw correlation with the outcome |
| Survives all eras | effect points the same way in every historical era |
Spec · the reproducible recipe
{
"kind": "maker_paper"
}