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EL1-deephistory-rederive

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 · markets 1x2

7471
bets placed · hit rate 30.9%
$-6274.42
P&L · ROI -5.7% on $110728 staked
-0.24%
CLV · avg edge vs closing line
0.2124 / 0.2059
Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%perfectbin 0.0-0.1 · n=119 · predicted 7.6% · actual 15.1%bin 0.1-0.2 · n=1493 · predicted 16.6% · actual 20.4%bin 0.2-0.3 · n=9360 · predicted 25.7% · actual 26.3%bin 0.3-0.4 · n=4607 · predicted 34.7% · actual 34.8%bin 0.4-0.5 · n=3097 · predicted 44.6% · actual 43.1%bin 0.5-0.6 · n=1622 · predicted 54.3% · actual 53.9%bin 0.6-0.7 · n=605 · predicted 63.9% · actual 54.2%bin 0.7-0.8 · n=141 · predicted 73.7% · actual 56.7%bin 0.8-0.9 · n=13 · predicted 83.1% · actual 84.6%predicted probabilityobserved frequency

Calibration table

BinnPredictedActual
0.0-0.11197.6%15.1%
0.1-0.21,49316.6%20.4%
0.2-0.39,36025.7%26.3%
0.3-0.44,60734.7%34.8%
0.4-0.53,09744.6%43.1%
0.5-0.61,62254.3%53.9%
0.6-0.760563.9%54.2%
0.7-0.814173.7%56.7%
0.8-0.91383.1%84.6%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

MatchMarketPickModel %Market %StakeP&L
Swindon v Crawley TownMatch resultCrawley Town win16.6%9.0%$20.00+206.00
Sunderland v DoncasterMatch resultDoncaster win14.9%7.7%$17.72+192.79
Sheffield United v CreweMatch resultCrewe win16.9%10.8%$19.71+182.51
Wigan v CambridgeMatch resultCambridge win18.9%8.6%$20.00+173.00
Ipswich v LincolnMatch resultLincoln win21.7%10.1%$20.00+166.00
Sunderland v WiganMatch resultWigan win20.1%10.6%$20.00+163.60
Milton Keynes Dons v DoncasterMatch resultDoncaster win22.5%10.6%$20.00+158.20
Ipswich v CambridgeMatch resultCambridge win19.3%10.7%$20.00+148.20
Sheffield United v WalsallMatch resultWalsall win26.9%12.1%$20.00+137.40
Peterboro v Gillingham
Match result
Gillingham win
22.9%
16.8%
$20.00
+127.20
Swindon v Leyton OrientMatch resultLeyton Orient win26.5%15.0%$20.00+126.40
Sheffield United v Fleetwood TownMatch resultFleetwood Town win23.7%13.0%$20.00+123.60
Crewe v Sheffield UnitedMatch resultCrewe win24.1%16.1%$20.00+121.80
Portsmouth v OldhamMatch resultOldham win25.4%15.3%$20.00+119.40
Swindon v ColchesterMatch resultColchester win29.2%13.0%$20.00+114.20